Market Outlook till June 2009

The year 2009 would be one of two halves, in the first half the market is likely to retest the October lows between January-April, says Manish Raychudhari of BNP Paribas, on NDTV Profit. The market will fare better in the second half as rupee could appreciate and FIIs inflows could restart by June, he adds

House View:We are in agreement with this analysis.The US market awaits the results of President Obama's rehab program, UK is reeling under collapse of the financial markets( which incidently contribute 50% to its economy) and Japan is already slipped into negative territory.
In this scenario no one has money to invest, redemption pressures are high on FIIs which in turn makes them net sellers. No new investible funds are available with DIIs (except LIC). Companies are moving from equity to debt(esp.FDs from public) as TATA MOTORS. This scenario with only push down the markets to 7500 levels in near term and around 6000 by June.

Also do no that forget elections are just around the corner and full budget will only be presented in June after the new govt. is in place... so all in all a direction towards south for the markets.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
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