The Stock Players

Crude Price to fall

2011-06-13T12:18:00.002+05:30

House View: Disclosures: No personal holdings Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Monday, 15 February

2010-02-15T11:24:00.002+05:30

The market continues to trade flat. Sensex is trading at 16117, down 34 points and Nifty is at 4817, down 9 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 0.26% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.63%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 739 against declines of 488 on the NSE

House View:US markets (President's Day holiday) and Asian markets are closed (Lunar New Year) today. Our market will open and remain flat with the absence of global cues.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

A good day for our market

2010-02-11T16:27:00.000+05:30

It was a good day for our market that closed at nearly the high point of the day. Sensex closed at 16152, up 230 points and Nifty is at 4826, up 69 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.69% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.78%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 782 against declines of 467 on the NSE.
House View:This is a pullback rally and one can take profits around Nifty 4950. Nifty has to close above 4830 for two days to justify reversal of trend. Nifty has resistance at 5100, 5200 levels
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Cash waiting on the sidelines

2010-02-10T12:09:00.000+05:30

The Nifty will face strong resistance at 4950-5050 in the short term, says Sharad Avasthi of SKP Securities on CNBC Awaaz. He advises buying on dips to 4600 and booking profits on any pullback. Only once the Nifty has crossed 5050 then one should think of initiating long positions again, he adds

House View:Asset bubble, tightening concerns over China and fears of a double dip recession in the US and Europe are weighing on the markets.
Cash waiting on the sidelines will enter the markets once there is better clarity over the global market situation.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Prediction: Nifty 4650, sensex 15,800

2009-12-19T13:30:00.003+05:30

It was a lacklustre week for our market that continued to trade in a tight range. Experts feel the market is headed lower if 4950 breaks on Nifty. This week's flat figures were: Sensex down 2.3% and Nifty down 2.5%. BSE Midcap index was down 1.9%, BSE Smallcap index down 1% over the week. BSE IT index was up 3%. BSE Bankex index was down 5.7%, BSE Realty down 5.5%, BSE Oil & Gas down 4.25% and BSE FMCG index down 3.3%.

House View:We see market testing 4650 nifty and 15,800 on sensex in coming days. This because of the simple reason that market has run up too fast on the 2010 PE valuations. Inflation and rising $ are going to be major factors which will cause this downslide. Gold has not stopped its upward rally and histoically stock markets and gold move in opposite directions. As gold rally continues the stocks have to drift lower.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

The Market @ 15,300 we predicted it !

2009-11-03T15:24:00.004+05:30

Weak global cues are adding pressure and our market is looking terrible, continuing to slide lower. The market is at the day's low. Sensex is trading at 15402, down 508 points and Nifty is at 4564, down 146 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 2.74% and BSE Smallcap index is down 4.15%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 180 against declines of 1103 on the NSE.

There is no idea where the market could find a bottom, says Dipan Mehta, market expert, on NDTV Profit. There has been a flurry of FII selling and the global correction has made it worse for our market, he feels. For investors, this is the time to start nibbling into good stocks.

House View:It feels good to have got it 'Right' and "Absolutely Right!" On 23rd October when the market was around 17,000 levels we predicted 15,300. Today the market is there.We saw the writing on the wall which most analyists did not. We give ourselves a pat on the back by predicting the same.
Market-set-to-fall-from-17000-to-15-300
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

We see more losses

2009-10-29T16:02:00.003+05:30

It was a terrible day for the market that ended at almost the low point of the day. The volatility was expected today as it was the end of the October F&O series. The series ended weak on high volumes. Sensex closed at 16042, down 241 points (provisional) and Nifty was at 4749, down 76 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.32% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.35%. The market breadth was in the negative with advances at 335 against declines of 938 on the NSE

House View:As we have been repeatedly stating, Market-set-to-fall-from-17000-to-15-300 market is headed down. Sensex still has another 300-700 points to loose. Wait on the sidelines and then enter. Tommorrow being the first day of Nifty futures there may be some buying and index may improve however, this will will not result in the gains being sustained. Keep watching for more anlalysis.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market at 16,350: we see more losses

2009-10-27T15:44:00.003+05:30

It was a terrible day of trade with the market seeing the biggest point fall on the Sensex and Nifty since August 17. Market also recorded the third highest turnover of Rs 1.46 lakh crore. Sensex closed at 16353, down 387 points (provisional) and Nifty at 4846, down 124 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 3.68% and BSE Smallcap index was down 4.42%. The market breadth was in the negative with advances at 122 against declines of 1164 on the NSE

House View:We predicted this last week! Market-set-to-fall-from-17000-to-15-300 Market is set to go down futher till Thursday. Wait and do not buy now.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market set to fall from 17,000 to 15, 300 levels

2009-10-23T23:08:00.002+05:30

It was a volatile week for our market that continued to be under pressure. Experts feel if there is a correction in the market it would be healthy. Next week is F&O expiry so expect some volatility and interest rates are unlikely to be changed. Earnings too have been in line with expectations, so by month end the market will get a clearer direction. This week's figures were: Sensex and Nifty both down almost 3%. BSE Midcap index was down 2.1%, BSE Smallcap index down 1.3% over the week. BSE Oil & Gas index was down 6.5%, BSE Consumer Goods index down 6%, BSE Realty index down 3.5%, BSE Metal index down 2.2%. BSE IT index was up 3.25% and BSE FMCG index up 1.25 3%.

House View:We see a hefty correction in the market. Both FIIs and DIIs have been sellers this week, an adverse judgement in case of Reliance is going to be the likely trigger and this could pull down the market to 15,300 levels. Sell off/ book profits and keep a light position in the market
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Sensex at 15800/ Nifty at 4680: We predicted it!

2009-08-24T16:23:00.002+05:30

The market surged today in line with its global peers. Today's rally was led by realty, capital goods and metal stocks. Experts feel the market is headed higher and bulls are in charge now. Sensex shut shop at 15628, up 387 points and Nifty at 4642, up 114 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 2.29% and BSE Smallcap index was up 2.83%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 1049 against declines of 222 on the BSE.

House View: We predicted it! It was on 19th August when the market was: Sensex at 14809, down 225 points and Nifty at 4394, down 64 points.

"We expect to see 15800/ 4680 in next few days. This is a contra call to what all the market analysts are saying."

It feels good to get it right!

Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Contra Call: Market will not fall below 4350, 14700

2009-08-19T15:55:00.002+05:30

Nifty has next support at 4240 and then it could head to 4120, says Mitesh Thakkar, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. But midcap IT stocks could outperform and one can buy them on dips for the long term, he feels. Sugar also looks sweet for the short term, he adds. Go short on banking and metal stocks, he says.

It was a quiet day of trade today, the market saw some profit booking and closed weak. Sensex closed at 14809, down 225 points (provisional) and Nifty at 4394, down 64 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.53% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.51%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 446 against declines of 803 on the BSE

House View: We have had two 5% sell offs in China. Indian markets followed China on both the days but came back strongly.The Level of 4350 Nifty and 14700 sensex has been sucessfully defended on three occassions in past few days.We are taking a contra call,"the markets will ot breach these levels" and in fact selloff in China will benefit India will some fresh inflows. We expect to see 15800 4680 in next few days. This is a contra call to what all the marke tanalysts are saying.

Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Asian Meltdown

2009-08-17T14:45:00.003+05:30

Manishi Raychaudhuri of BNP Paribas Securities on CNBC TV18. The market is likely to be ranged between 13000-16000 for a while, he adds. He believes that it is likely to correct around 10% and that fall would act as a good entry chance.

The market continues to trade volatile, witnessing selling pressure. Sensex is trading at 14887, down 525 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 4423, down 156 points

House View:We have been saying for last few weeks that market will not be able to go up further. Today the sell off in China, Hongkong and Japan indicates two things, Asian markets were over heated and they need to cool off through some sell off. Secondly with the US and European markets reviving the valuations in those markets have become attractive. So it is Asian sell off to invest to Europe and US.

Wait to 14,200 levels to re-enter the market
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market will move to lower levels

2009-08-06T15:39:00.003+05:30

The market has seen a sharp slide on account of profit booking. Sensex is trading at 15477, down 426 points and Nifty is at 4574, down 120 points from the previous close. The market breadth is negative with advances at 396 against declines of 850 on the BSE

The market may see some more correction of 100 points on the Nifty, says Sharmila Joshi, investment advisor, on NDTV Profit. The market has seen profit booking and basket selling today, she adds

House View:In our post on 29 July we had predicted market is losing momentum and we see lower levels. Market heading lower We still hold market is overheated and it needs to correct to 13,500 -13,800 levels before continuing upwards (Around Diwali time.) May wait to enter around 14,000-14,200 levels and should exit/ book profits now.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Is it 13,500 now

2009-07-29T16:32:00.002+05:30

The market saw a lackluster session and closed weak (on higher volumes) on account of poor global cues. But the market recorded the third highest turnover ever of Rs 1.47 lakh crore

Our market has outperformed its global peers and the earnings season has shown a positive surprise, says Amit Dalal of Amit Nalin Securities on CNBC TV18. But after the sharp run up, global markets are headed for a correction and we too shall move in line before heading higher, he feels

The market saw a lackluster session and closed weak following poor global cues. Sensex closed at 15128, down 203 points (provisional) and Nifty at 4500, down 63 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.48%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 428 against declines of 828 on the BSE

House View:
With all the big ticket news out including budget and the monetary policy out there is very little to boost the continued upsurge. Secondly the moonsoon has been pretty weak in most parts of the country, this going to have a mild to moderate negative impact on economy. Excessive voulmes today indicate that sell off has started already on the market. Inour view the market is now headed to test lower levels of 13,500-13,800
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Sell and wait on the sidelines

2009-02-24T15:06:00.004+05:30

S&P revises outlook on India to negative from stable, reports CNBC TV18. S&P affirms BBB- rating on India. Expect FY09 fiscal deficit to increase to 11.4% from 5.7%. Fiscal deficit is expected to remain high at 11.1% in FY10. Fiscal deficit is likely to widen if next government announces another stimulus package.

This is the second phase of the bear market with low volumes and low volatility, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Midcaps and smallcaps have been beaten out of shape and Nifty range is 2680-2800, he says. If the Dow breaks down, the Indian market will go with the global weakness and go down to 2500-2600 Nifty levels, he adds. This is a trader's market with buy on dips and sell on rally, he says.

The downside in the market is limited while the upside seems capped at 3000 for Nifty, says Kavi Kumar, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. This is a buy on dips (around Nifty levels of 2500-2600) market for trading, he adds.

House View: Indian Stock Market is placed on thin ice, it is just a matter of time when the ice breaks and the market sinks.
The US banks CITI and Insurance giant AIG are going to trigger a global collapse, the DOW and NYSE will sink and take the global markets with them. The scenario is grim and situation is critical.
Our reiterate our advice sell and wait on the sidelines.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Time to sell and wait

2009-02-20T15:31:00.003+05:30

Dow Jones has touched its six-year low and is looking ugly today, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. If Dow retests 7200 then Nifty will not be able to hold support levels of 2670-2700 and go down to 2500, he adds. Dow is currently trading at 7372, down 90 points from its previous close.

The market is seeing fatigue at higher levels on account of weak macros, says Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS, on CNBC TV18. The worry continues on higher fiscal deficit and in such a scenario it will be difficult in the long-term for interest rates to go down, he adds.

The Asian markets are trading weak. The European markets opened weak and continue to bleed. Poor global cues see Indian market under pressure. Sensex is trading at 8798, down 244 points and Nifty is at 2718, down 71 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 1.59% and BSE Smallcap index is down 1.50%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 214 against declines of 938 on the NSE.

The odds are that the market is looking weaker, says Salil Sharma of Kapoor & Sharma Company, on CNBC Awaaz. If Nifty closes below 2680 then it is headed lower to 2500, he says. The 2500 support is strong and crucial, if that is broken Nifty could be headed to 2200, he adds.

House View: The beauty of a good analysis in predicting the market before the market shows it. We predicted as early as 9th Feb,2009 about market going down (http://the-stock-players.blogspot.com/2009/02/uncertain-market.html) and reiterated it on 16th Feb, 2009 (http://the-stock-players.blogspot.com/2009/02/budget-2009-impact.html)

What the analysts are saying now is only going to fuel the bearish sentiment and once market breaches 8700 it will simply dip to 8000 in 1-2 days and thereon go down slowly to 7600-7400 levels till elections are on. It is still time to book some profits and make fresh buys at 7500 levels.

Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market is weak

2009-02-18T11:03:00.002+05:30

The market is heading towards October lows in the near-term as global economic conditions fail to improve, says Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS on CNBC TV18. He expects commodity, technology and oil and gas stocks to drag indices lower. He finds that bank stocks are showing first signs of weakness.

House View: Over last few days we have been indicating that market has no steam left and is headed to 8000 levels. It is also because of the forthcoming electons that money may move out of the markets for campaigning funds.
However Reliance and SBI remain strong supports to the markets. Reliance can be boght around 925-950 levels in next few days and SBI around 890-910 levels.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market is sliding as we predicted

2009-02-17T13:35:00.002+05:30

The market is likely to be in a Sensex range of 8500-10000 for the next 3-4 months, says Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Securities, on CNBC TV18. The earnings outlook will continue to be bleak and there won't be easy times going ahead, he feels. The next trigger for the market will be the elections, he adds

House View:Market is sliding as we predicted, sell whatever is possible and wait to make new purchases. Market still has to go down 1500 points, so do not loose money by entering now.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Budget 2009 Impact

2009-02-16T12:39:00.002+05:30

The market reacts sharply to the interim budget with both Sensex and Nifty seeing a sudden fall. Fresh shorts are seen in realty and banking stocks, particularly stocks like DLF, Unitech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank, reports CNBC TV18. Fresh shorts are also seen in capital goods space with both BHEL and L&T losing ground. Reliance Power is also seeing fresh shorts addition in the power space.

House View: The positions built up on expectations of a favourable budget are going to be unwound. UPA govt. has not come out with any economic thrust and market is now going to go into a tailspin. There was a Deadman's Cross formation on the charts a fewdays back.(20DMA dipping below 50DMA) and last time this happened market went down by 30-35%, we will see a similar scenario now and 8000 levels will be tested and we will not be surprised to see 7400-7600 levels.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Uncertain market

2009-02-09T17:18:00.002+05:30

Book profits from time to time as the market may not be able to sustain higher levels going forward, says Upendra Kulkarni of Fortess Financial, on CNBC Awaaz. A US stimulus package is expected to be announced tomorrow and the Indian market will continue to trend as per global markets, he feels. But this continues to be a bear market with some rallies, he adds.

House View: The market has rallied from 8700 to reach 9600 levels, this is in expectation of the US relief package, even if the package is positive, it will not result in immediate U-Turn of the economic downslide. Market is moving on international trends but these are unclear and volatile. The reality of Indian market are
1.An interim budget and
2.Forthcoming elections which will throw up a coalition govt. again.
In this scenario the market cannot take an upward direction for a sustained period.
We would advise to move out of whatever stocks can be sold and re enter when situation is clear in next 2-3 months.

Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market Outlook till June 2009

2009-01-29T17:35:00.001+05:30

The year 2009 would be one of two halves, in the first half the market is likely to retest the October lows between January-April, says Manish Raychudhari of BNP Paribas, on NDTV Profit. The market will fare better in the second half as rupee could appreciate and FIIs inflows could restart by June, he adds

House View:We are in agreement with this analysis.The US market awaits the results of President Obama's rehab program, UK is reeling under collapse of the financial markets( which incidently contribute 50% to its economy) and Japan is already slipped into negative territory.
In this scenario no one has money to invest, redemption pressures are high on FIIs which in turn makes them net sellers. No new investible funds are available with DIIs (except LIC). Companies are moving from equity to debt(esp.FDs from public) as TATA MOTORS. This scenario with only push down the markets to 7500 levels in near term and around 6000 by June.

Also do no that forget elections are just around the corner and full budget will only be presented in June after the new govt. is in place... so all in all a direction towards south for the markets.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

We take a contrarian view

2009-01-29T10:20:00.002+05:30

Market will have positive opening today on account of strong global cues, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It had a nice back-to-back gain for the past two days and will continue to rally further till 3100, if Nifty is able to trade above 2860-2875 for a few trading sessions, he adds. He sees support for Nifty at 2700-2765 and resistance at 2930-3000.
House View:We take a contrarian view, there is no FFI, FII buying to sustain a rally. They have continually been sellers.The results of corporates have not ben encouraging(TATA STEEL,Reliance)The profitablity od banks will be under pressure under influence of RBI induced lower interest rate regime. News filtering from realty is very depressing as most of the assests are being put on the chopping block by these companies. We see money moving out of the market as clearly indicated by rising gold prices.

Market will hit a low of 7,500 in next few days in sudden selling pressure so do not take any fresh buying positions.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Sell Out and wait

2009-01-27T19:25:00.002+05:30

House View: The market has been going down steadily. It has come down from 10,200 levels to about 8600.We believe that there is bound to be a 250-350 point rally at this point, before the market resumes its slide. We suggest to sellout what is giving profit and wait for the market to fall futher. A level of 7,600 -7,800 is visible in next 7-10 days
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Buy now or stay invested

2008-10-22T13:49:00.004+05:30

The recession should be over by 2009-end, says Daphne Roth, Head of Equity Research-Asia, ABN Amro Bank, on CNBC-TV18. The bear market could end by the first half of 2009, she adds. She sees a lot of forced selling due to fund redemptions in China, India and feels that it is sentiment and not fundamentals that are driving outflows from these countries. Investors should sell into a technical rebound and focus on companies with high cash component and low gearing, she suggests.

House View: This fall in market is purely temporary, more due to need of FFIs to sell their best performing portfolios to meet redemption/liquidity issues. It is because;'in a crisis one always sells gold at the first instance'. The smart broker always buys gold because it is being sold in distress and at a discount.Buy now or remain invested,we see the market at 14,700-15,800 levels very soon.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

That is why RBI is not supporting the Rupee

2008-10-16T14:47:00.003+05:30

The Rupee on Thursday breached the 49-mark against the US dollar and fell by 52 paise in early trade following increased capital outflow by foreign funds due to melting stock markets.

At the Interbank Foreign Exchange market, the Indian currency, which was down by 43 paise at 48.52/53 on Wednesday, plunged further by 52 paise to 49.04 against the greenback due to heavy dollar demand from importers and capital outflows.

House View:We have been predicting RBI intervetion in steadying the rupee, but it seems that RBI is thinking differently on intervention. With the fall in global stock markets Indian Markets are still holding profits for the FIIs. They are offloading their holdings to get whatever they can get from the market. Due to selling pressure their is demand for dollars as the money has to be repatriated in dollars. Now, as we believe, if RBI intervenes to prop the $ it will mean that the FIIs will have bigger profits due to increase in the price of $.Thus RBI loses money by supporting the Rupee and this loss ends up as profit for FIIs who in either case are going to sell.
RBI by not intervening in the $ rupee trade is trying to make FII selling unattractive, futher as oil prices are rapidly going down, their no tearing hurry to intervene.We expect that once this frenzy ends, RBI will step in to prop the rupee to maximise the impact of falling oil prices. This wil be a neccessity as the government is facing elections in 4 states in Nov./Dec. and government will reduce oil prices by 2-3 rupees to lower prices and reduce inflation as an populist measure. This is only possible if oil falls to below $50 per barrel( seems unlikely)or the rupee comes up to 44 per $, possible after present sellout and RBI support.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market at 3:07

2008-10-15T15:11:00.000+05:30

There is relentless selling by the FIIs and sentiments are really bad in the market, says Rajen Shah of Angel Broking, on CNBC TV18. There is short term pain, maybe 3-6-9 months but India's long-term story is intact, he feels. Commodities have tumbled, crude is off and inflation may go below 10% by March, he says. This is, in fact, a good time to enter the market which will give fabulous returns in two to three years, he adds

House View:We fully agree with this analysis, this is the time to invest inthe market.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

International Market Review

2008-10-11T11:14:00.002+05:30

The global financial markets turmoil which we are wtinessing is of historic proportion. The VIX index (a guage of risk aversion) has climbed to 53 levels, highest in the history of the index, the commercial paper market (life-blood of the short-term financing needs) has dried up with issuance falling 30-40% in the recent times, the corporate bond spreads (indicator of borrowing costs for the corporates at large) have widened to 300-400 bps over the US Treasuries and the bank lending standards as depicted by the surveys by US Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ have been tightened across very significantly both for commercial enterprises as well as households. The complete freeze in the credit markets has singificantly increased the downside risks to the real economy.

Below we list down some of the very recent developments in the global financial markets and its implication to India.

IMF raises its estimate of credit related losses
The IMF now estimates that credit related losses could reach as high as USD 1.4 trillion up from USD 1.3 trillion estimated just 2 weeks ago and USD 945 bn estimated in April this year.
It has warned that the global financial institutions may need USD 675 bn in fresh capital over the next several years to recover from the current credit crisis.
The IMF also feels that overall risks to the EMs have risen sharply in the wake of massive capital outflows.
Ben Bernanke speech paints a bleak picture
The Fed decided to lend directly to American nonfinancial corporations as the commercial paper markets froze. In some cases the CP rates have climbed to as high as 7% when 3-4% is the normal range. This is the first time since Great Depression that Fed is using its powers under 'unusual and exigent circumstances'. For this the Fed will set up a special-purpose vehicle that will purchase top rated 3M commercial paper.
Bernanke hinted at the need for interest rate cuts sooner than later as he feels that recent developments in the economy would bring inflation rates back in line with price stability. The economic outlook has worsened with the reduction in credit in the wider economy as even creditworthy borrowers are not able to get credit/mortgages, the credit card limits have been cut.
The bleak outlook presented by the Fed triggered a plunge of more than 500 points in Dow Jones Tuesday to 9447 levels, the lowest levels since September 2001. Over the last 5 trading sessions Dow has fallen nearly 13%.
Problems emerging fast in Europe
Europe is now showing signs of extreme distress and various European government carried out series of rescue measures. While these measures seemed to have helped, they have also revealed the need for a much more coordinated move.
The UK government is planning to make an offer to buy stakes in RBS, Barclays Plc, and soon to be combined HBOS Plc & Lloyds TSB Group and it has also plans to provide additional assistance of GBP 50 bn. To cover potential losses, the government may buy stakes mainly through preferred shares. The government may also be planning to enhance its deposit guarantee probably for the corporate deposits as well.
The move came after RBS stock was down 39%, HBOS fell 42% and Barclays fell 9% on Tuesday and the Overnight GBP Libor rate climbed 80 bps in one day from 5.08% to 5.84%. The UK banks remain heavily dependent on credit markets for their funding such that loan-to-deposit ratio for UK domestic banks stand at 143%, up from 105% in 2000.
Iceland is all set to buy loan of $4 billion from Russia to avoid bankruptcy.
Most of the European markets are down 7-9% at opening on Wednesday
Asian stocks feeling the heat
Nikkei fell 925 points to 9203 , its biggest one-day fall since 1987 on account of unnamed report that suggested that Toyota's profits would fall by 40% in the year to next March in the wake of major slowodwn in North America and China. BoJ injected USD 14.5 bn into the money markets. Japan's bankruptcies have jumped 34% last month, the fastest pace in eight years. JPY appreciated strongly against the USD reaching below 100 as carry trades unwind.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its benchmark interest rate from 3.5% to 2.5%, just 50 bps above the US Federal Funds Rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia also cut its benchmark rate and expanded the types of collateral it would take for lending in money market operations.
Most of the Asian markets are down 5-8% and Indonesia stock market had to suspended trading.
India- Sensex falls below 11000 before recovering
Sensex lost more than 900 points intraday low breaking 11000 barrier before recovering to above 11000. The FII outflow from Jan to Sept this year has been to the tune of USD 9.1 bn and another half a billion in last few days.
The RBI has cut CRR by 50bps to 8.5% which will come into effect from October 11 and is expected to release about INR 200bn in the system. This measure was mainly to enhance systemic liquidity in the system given the spike in overnight call rates due to advance tax outflows, government intervention in forex markets to stabilise the rupee and government borrowings. The recent fall in crude oil prices has led to decline in inflationary pressures within the country which came down to 11.99% for the week ended September 20.
The SEBI lifted ban on a requirement forcing investors to register in India before buying shares and limits on offshore derivatives that were imposed last October.The regulator also overturned rules that banned overseas investors from issuing participatory notes (P-Notes) on derivatives.This means investors can issue P-Notes on single stock and index futures and options. It also scrapped a rule which said P-notes could only account for up to 40% of the value of assets held by a fund. (P-notes are used by overseas investors to buy securities through foreign institutional investors registered in India)
Also, Indian entities investing in infrastructure projects can now bring upto USD 500mn in India without information to RBI. The government has also allowed companies operating in the refining, exploration and mining sectors to bring into India upto USD 500mn of ECBs, a ten fold expansion from the earlier cap of USD 50mn. All these measures have been taken to boost capital flows within the country.
Implications to India:

The fall in Indian markets today is more to do with negative global cues and FII outflows. We feel that global financial crisis is still not fully known and it will take another 5-6 months to completely unfold the depth of such crisis. Indian government is taking steps to boost liquidity in the system. We do not expect an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meet, however further CRR cut is not completely ruled out. Earnings growth is moderating and fiscal concerns are adding to the overall pessimism. The upcoming Q2 results will provide some direction to the market in the near term. In uncertain times like this, investors are tempted to try to time their investments. However, over the longer term, investors who are willing to accept periods of market volatility are often well-positioned to grow their wealth. The markets are expected to remain in corrective mode exhibiting high volatility for some more time.

House View: Technically there is nothing wrong with Indian Market, Hold to whatever investements that have been made. If you have fresh liquidity, take postions in the stocks which have been battered down the most. We again suggest ICICI Bank, DLF, RELAINCE, RPL, RPOWER, TATA STEEL, BHARTI AIRTEL, SBI
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

ICICI Bank

2008-10-01T09:58:00.006+05:30

9.50 AM- If one bought ICICI Bank at 460, then it is possible to play it till Rs 625-630, as it is in a trading rally now, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock closed Rs 534.85 on the BSE on 30th Sept. » Send to friends

9:47 AM - In technical terms, the market is oversold and therefore, one can expect a bounce here, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18.

House View: We agree on ICICI Bank, we had suggested buying in ICICI Bank at 485, a 20% to 25% profit, and one may exit around 580-595 levels.The stock is trading at 544 now.
Latest quote on ICICI Bank
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Markets @ 1.45

2008-09-30T13:42:00.003+05:30

SENSEX 12,936.79 (+340.04 points)
MIDCAP 4,757.31 (+27.98 )
BSE-500 4,901.28 (+91.25)

1:33 PM - One can start buying in the market now, but in a staggered way, as the bottom has not been made yet, says Hemen Kapadia, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The market may see a bounce....

House View: You should have listened to us yesterday,isn't it!
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Markets at 1.00

2008-09-30T13:08:00.000+05:30

1:04 PM - The market has gained strength and is trading well in the positive terrain. Sensex is at 12,789, up 193 points from the previous close. Nifty is at 3902, up 52 points. But BSE Midcap index is down 0.7% an BSE Smallcap index, down 1.8%.

1:00 PM - The market is overdue for a bounce, says Hemen Kapadia, technical analyst, on Zee Business. So one may see 1000-1200 point rally in the next 1-1.5 weeks, he says

12.29 PM - The flows are mixed at the institutional desk, say dealers, reports CNBC-TV18. There's buying support at lower levels by domestic funds, they say. Buying is seen in defensive stocks...

House View: We knew this yesterday!!!
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market at 2.20

2008-09-29T14:21:00.004+05:30

2.10 PM- FIIs are selling and the market is under tremendous pressure, says Ambareesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking on CNBC-TV18. Once Nifty breaks 3800 it will fall to 3600 sharply, he adds.

2:04 PM - There is panic selling in the market now as it tumbles further. Sensex touches new low of 2008. Sensex is trading at 12467, down 634 points and Nifty is at 3809, down 175 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 5.95% and BSE Smallcap index is down 5.28%. BSE Realty index was down 9.9%, BSE Bankex is down 7.2%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 63 against declines of 1198 on the NSE

House View: This is bear market panic, time to get bold and buy.
ICICI BANK @ 485 Latest quote

DLF @ 335 Latest quote

L&T @ 2340(1162) Latest quote

RPL @ 140 Latest quote

TATASTEEL @ 440 Latest quote

RELIANCE @ 1890Latest quote

BHARTI AIRTEL @ 718Latest quote

RCOM @ 327 Latest quote

Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market analysis at 11

2008-09-29T11:10:00.003+05:30

It is a weak day for the market today. Sensex is trading below 13,000 at 12,883, down 218 points from the previous close. Nifty is at 3929, down 55 points. CNX Midcap and BSE Smallcap indexes, both are down 2.3% each. All BSE sectoral indexes are trading lower, except that for FMCG, which is up over 1%

House View:Indian economy has come out stronger post, Wall-Street fiasco. Indian banks have already had this dose of government funding through the debt waiver scheme of Mr. Chidambaram(same medicine, as Wall-street has been given now,under an electrol brand.) There very little exposure of Indian companies to these i Banks, a small hit of $ 400-700 million being of no consequence.

RBI has been sluggish to intervene in the Forex market, but we suspect that it is doing so in small tranches as it possibly cannot afford to loose the gains from fall in oil prices,against a strong dollar. Maybe excess $ demand by the FFIs and FIIs and the foreign HNIs who are selling off in Indian markets is not getting the rupee to desired Rs 43-44 levels.

Market as we have been saying is in bottoming stage at 12,700-13,200 and this is the level to enter the market and today seems to be the day to do so.(our previous prediction dated 19th Sept is being reproduced for reference: There will be some correction next week where you can pick up at prices 5-10% lower than today. But on the whole Indian Market is fundamentally not affected by the US or Russian crisis. Our prediction 14900-15200 by Diwali.)

We are also bullish in airline stocks on two counts firstly lower oil prices and second and more significant is 6th pay commission recomendations which have permitted air travel to a vary large section of employees on official travel and LTC.

We are also bulish on hotel sector as the 6th pay commission recomendations which have permitted Rs 5000+500 to senior government officers as hotel stay and 3000+300 to middle level officers while on tour/official duty. A large number of officials are now going to move to hotel accomodations on tour instead of official rest houses, leading to higher bed occupancy.
Remember, Air India and Indian Airlines have largely survived on government billing for several decades.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Market analysis after close

2008-09-19T18:57:00.000+05:30

1. For the Indian market it was a fantastic, strong session today. Sensex shut shop at 14042, up 726 points and Nifty at 4245, up 207 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 2.9% and BSE Smallcap index was up 2.3%. BSE Realty was up 7.5%, BSE IT index was up 6.6% and BSE Bankex index was up 5%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 1037 against declines of 239 on the NSE.

Top Nifty gainers included ICICI Bank it closed at 628
(we had suggested buying when the stock was at Rs 520, yesterday morning)

2. The market saw an externally imposed cylone upon us from the global financial space, says Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on CNBC TV18. But the Indian market has been able to pick itself up and the investing world is not unaware of India's fundamental story, he feels. The sentiment will be positive going forward.....

3. MFs and FIIs have been buying in this market......, says Ajay Bagga of Lotus India Asset Management, on CNBC TV18..

House View: We have been saying this for last two days.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Buy now

2008-09-19T15:09:00.000+05:30

The market is seeing a good, strong session with positive global cues. Sensex is trading at 13978, up 662 points and Nifty is at 4222, up 183 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 2.93% and BSE Smallcap index is up 2.28%. BSE Realty is up 8%, BSE IT index is up 6.5% and BSE Bankex index is up 4.7%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 1031 against declines of 243 on the NSE.

House View:We had said yesterday, it is time to buy and the stocks have picked up today. There will be some correction next week where you can pick up at prices 5-10% lower than today. But on the whole Indian Market is fundamentally not affected by the US or Russian crisis. Our prediction 14900-15200 by Diwali.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

We reiterate: It is time to buy now

2008-09-18T12:36:00.000+05:30

Sensex is at 12,665, down 597 points from the previous close. Nifty is at 3846, down 162 points. CNX Midcap index is down 4.7% and BSE Smallcap index, down 5%. All BSE sectoral indices are trading lower, with that for realty beaten down the most; BSE Realty index is down over 8%

House View:There is absolutely nothing negative in the Indian Markets.Inflation did not touch the anticipated 13% levels, it is more likely to be around 10% in about 5-6 weeks, Oil prices have gone down to $91 per barrel levels,RBI( as we anticipated in last post) has started to intervene in the market and we see rupee at 44 levels soon. The lower crude prices and higher rupee in a double positive. Government is waiting on sidelines to reduce petrol prices which would further ease off inflation. Market is around 12800-13100 levels and will stabilise here, we do not see any further downside. A smart rally to 15000 levels is likely by Diwali time. So buy now.

Suggested picks:
ICICI Bank @510-525
Reliance Industries @ 1770-1825
DLF @360-375
Tata Steel @ 450-460

upside of 25-40% till diwali

Disclosures: No personal holdings

Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Time to buy now

2008-09-13T10:07:00.000+05:30

The index figures the week ended 12 September are:
Sensex was down 3.5%,
Nifty down 2.7%.
BSE Midcap index was down 3.15%
BSE Smallcap index was down 3% over the week.
BSE Metal index was down 8%,
BSE Realty index was down 6.4%,
BSE CD index was down 6%,
BSE Oil&Gas index was down 5.5%,
BSE CG index was down 1.6%,
BSE IT index was down 3.5%, BSE Technology index down 3% and
BSE HC index down 2.2%.

House View: It seems that the market is reacting to two bits of information, first being the imminent fall of Lehman Brothers in US, which is going to effect Indian market directly as they were big investors on Indian Bourses.Further, this is dampening sentiment of all other investement houses from US.

The second and the more important factor is the fall of Indian rupee against the US $, this has come from Rs 42 levels to about Rs 45.78. This ineffect means a huge loss to all the FIIs and FFIs who invest and repatriate money in USDs. We expect RBI to intervene soon and stabilise rupee at 42-43 levels. This will bring back the investment in the market, with inflation falling and oil prices falling through the floor, Indian stock market is poised for a short term boom in next 2-3 weeks. So start buying after 2-3 days when the market has stabilised around the new lower levels.
Disclosures: No personal holdings
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Crude hits a low of $ 104 per barrel

2008-09-10T09:04:00.000+05:30

Crude hits low of $104.23/bbl, the lowest since April 4, reports CNBC TV18. The Opec meet today in Vienna will decide on the winter production schedule. Analysts expect production to be kept steady. Oil is weakening on firm dollar and demand continues to outstrip supply, says OPEC President Chakib Khelil.

House view: Stocks like Cairn and RPL are likely to go down further because of faling oil prices.
Cairn closed at 229 and RPL at 159.60
Disclosure: No personal holdings in above stocks.
Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Maruti Suzuki to move up

2008-09-10T09:02:00.000+05:30

Maruti Suzuki has a short-term target of Rs 760, says Rahul Mohindar, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Maruti ended day atRs 708, up 2% on the BSE.

House View: With falling oil prices, inflatation is going to moderate. Further there is talk of cut in oil prices, release of arrears to tune of 18,000 crores to central government employees is also likely to fuel demand for cars and Maruti being most visible brand is likely to gain the most.In our view stock is likely to touch 815 by end October.

Disclosures:No personal holdings

Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Markets at Open Today

2008-09-09T09:55:00.000+05:30

Unless the Nifty does not cross 4560 convincingly, one cannot call it a breakout, says Hardik Jain, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Since Asian markets are trading lower today, one may see negative momentum in the Indian market too, he adds

Nifty has a strong resistance at 4650, but once this is broken on the upside, it can go up to 4800, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking, on NDTV Profit. Government reforms in insurance and banking will be the key triggers for the market now, he says

Part of the Dream Weave Walk Network 1998-2010

Top Picks in the Stock Market

2008-08-20T11:28:00.000+05:30

On the minute stock market picks on stocks to buy, sell, sensex nifty.